How to Win the SnapChat IPO Without Buying the Stock

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@thincsocial

twitter.com/thincsocial

 

04/06/2017

 

The two leading underwriters of the SNAP IPO ($SNAP) recently were noted as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. A close third position was JP Morgan. It is important to follow how many shares each one offered and how each of those investment banks made off because of the IPO. Snap Inc is seen as a loser, namely because it has actually lost almost a billion last year. They spend way too much and have not yet found out how to capture their extremely young audience ad dollars. A lot of young people use Snap… And as a side note lets be real, they are not a “Camera Company”. They are a photographic social media company using real time technology.

Morgan Stanley led the way. Which is why they are the featured stock of this story. How do you beat a loser in the market when they launch their IPO? Buy the underwriter. In this case Morgan Stanley as the lead will make the most money from the offering because of fees charged to Snap for the process and how much they had to offer to funds and insurance companies.

“According to SEC filings, lead underwriter Morgan Stanley got 60 million Snap shares, or, 30.2 percent of the shares given to underwriters — which would mean $25.71 million in fees, the biggest cut of any bank”.

This is big because when it comes to quarterly earnings, especially year over year (YoY) Morgan Stanley should see a jump in earnings due to the slow growth of the IPO market from last year. So take a look at the numbers and perhaps Morgan Stanley is the real winner here.

One last thing to note: Saudi ARAMCO Oil deal scheduled for 2018 is also expected to have Morgan Stanley lead the deal, and will be if it goes through the largest IPO ever valued at pre-IPO around $2 Trillion. For more info on the Snap IPO, check out the links below.

 

** In interest of full disclosure the author does own shares in Morgan Stanley (MS), but not Snap (SNAP). **

** Please check out a prospectus and look at your own risk before investing in anything, if you choose to. **

Featured image photo credit: snapchat.com

 

Articles used to back up stats:

 http://work.chron.com/ipo-underwriter-do-3841.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/03/snap-ipo-what-wall-street-banks-made.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/snaps-going-public-heres-how-an-ipo-actually-works.html

Why Netflix Is King Of Content

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Netflix is one of the FANG stocks on Wall Street that has taken the world by storm, and has the full attention of the Millennial Generation. The others being Facebook, Amazon, and Google. It all started out as a DVD-to-home delivery service that once offered free streaming online as part of the deal. I can remember myself thinking what a stupid idea of watching videos on my computer when I could just have DVD’s ready to be sent to me by mail whenever I wanted.

It was setup so that your “Queue” would be whatever movies you wanted to be delivered next would come as soon as you put the one you had back in its already prepaid Netflix envelope and left it in your mailbox. Two or three days later the next one up would be in your mailbox.

Netflix most genius self promotion without paying for advertising to do it by far was having those DVD’s delivered in a big red envelope that looks exactly like the logo above. A big red envelope with the name “Netflix” across so everyone knew when you got

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Netflix.com

your mail delivered to your house what you had in your hand and where it came from.

Which is why we are here today.

Millennials soon made the switch to online and doing a lot more with streaming. Pretty soon the DVD’s started to be a small added benefit to watching shows “On Demand” whenever you wanted through Netflix. Streaming shows put the DVD side of the business to rest, but that was OK for Netflix because by now most people knew who they were and liked where they were going.

Netflix is king because the the content it offers. Believe me when I say myself and most of my friends were pumped when we found out Bill Nye The Science Guy was added to Netflix. I remember when I started with the DVD service I thought it was amazing that there were so many movies I had not heard of yet had the option to view. Many indies were a part of the Netflix rise, and still are today. Where Netlfix has evolved is to be its own production company with many hit shows and features such as House Of Cards, Orange Is The New Black, and Making A Murderer among a few to name.

Netflix will be around for awhile and it all has to do with what it produced and keeps producing with whatever is trending. Evolving the business and focusing on content will be what drive Netflix to being in the elite FANG group.

Greece Country Risk Analysis

The following was an emerging markets project in a multinational finance course based on the country risk analysis of Greece…

 

 

Matt Helser

Mult Nat Fin

12/13/15

Country Risk Analysis

For centuries Greece was one of the most powerful and important economic hubs of the Mediterranean. The seemingly rich history of Ancient and Modern Greece has left wonders to the world of power and superiority, unmatched for hundreds of years. Fast forward to today and Greece is anything but a world power, when it comes to wealth they are one of the most in debt countries in the world. How Greece got to be where they are today in terms of how bad off financially their government has run them into the ground is amazing considering how it was let to happen. From political unrest, to economic turmoil, and a financial crisis, Greece has seen and been through it all.

    When it comes to politics, Greece has seen some of biggest and most hostile changing of power in its government, mostly of which may add up to why they are where they are today. When they left the Ottoman empire for independence around 1829, the Greeks were far from being under one imposed governing principle for the next almost 190 years. In that span Greece was ruled by a king, taken by Nazi control, run by a parliament (Election of a president later on, now prime minister). So many rulers of one small country in such a short time. To say there is any kind of unity based off those facts would be an overstatement and a stretch. The resiliency of the Greek people in support of these governments rings true as to why each have succeeded in different forms of rulings and order over time. The government today is lead by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras who was elected in January 2015. The Greek people have loved Tsipras because of his nationalism attitude to unite Greece and its people against the rest of the world when it comes to refusing to sign away their future, specifically in financial terms. Tsipras had the popular support of his people after he pleaded with them to vote no in a July 2015 referendum on whether or not to accept terms of a bailout agreement, and they followed his words by doing so. He then did a complete 180 and agreed to the bailout terms to an extent and to work on them further, which angered many people in his country. Tsipras resigned in August 2015 and then was re-elected in September, almost a month after his resignation. The instability politically could definitely be seen as a factor as to why Greece is in the situation right now.

One of the problems with Greece is that they cannot get out of their own way when it comes to realizing their financial situation is not good for themselves and the rest of the Eurozone both short and long term. When it comes to socioeconomics, the country has not put the right leaders in place to get them out of their desperation financially, but instead elect leaders who stand in their resilience. That has not helped them in any way to turn down long term deals and bargain for better short term outcomes. As of September 2015 the unemployment rate was 24.6%. For the entire year of 2014 Greece had the highest unemployment rate among other European countries with 27%, the next closest was Spain, which is also in turmoil today, but only had 25% unemployment rate in 2014 compared with Greece. For the 3rd quarter 2015 a report by Cushman and Wakefield suggested primary rents are somewhat stable,  along with high retail yields yet the sector has not improved much even with those high yields. The same report also makes a reference to the high tax hikes which will likely cause no drastic changes with improving domestic spending in Greece until what was mentioned to be 2017 at the earliest. Greece’s 2014 per capita income was $21,682.6 which are the most recent numbers and in USD$. Even with a population of about 10.6 million those number are low for income in a Eurozone country. Consider Germany, which is at one of the highest points for the Eurozone countries with per capita income of about $47,000 USD, and then Greece which has the one of the lowest, as mentioned before (With relativity to its population and GDP).

The investment risk of Greece is still not very attractive to many buyers. Greece debt is held in large part by Germany, which leads the international bailout funding. The way the current restructuring and agreement is still going on will result in how future investment is done from external forces in Greece.

Internally Greece is a resilient bunch. They do not want to give away their financial freedoms that past generations have enjoyed, yet do not see that those overly compensated for so many years have dug them into the hole they are into today. No one likes tax hikes and lower retirement plan contributions, but they had a good run while they did, yet no one sees those are things that have to happen to not have their country be in default. Greece has not had any political violence for a few decades, but that does not mean it could not happen again, and soon. As of recently, two of the suspected Paris attackers moved through Greece posing as refugees. That slip up in security and although no direct terrorism was done in Greece, that is a big security slip up. No one saw the Paris attacks coming, yet still the fact that Greece was in the plans to get to Europe is a big factor in counter terrorism.

When it comes to outside or external factors against Greece, it has had the benefit of being an island without neighboring countries on any kind of border. The financial external pressures from the rest of the Eurozone has been exhausting to listen to, surely it is worse on the inside to have to deal with it. Internal conflicts in its history, most notable being being seized by Nazi control in WWII.

Stories of corruption is not a surprise in a country awry with horrible financial planning. It is hand-in-hand with the situation the Greeks are in to have tax evasion, corruption in politics, and other things of the like. Even with small countries there will always be the problem with not claiming income and money under the table, but Greece’s problem will be magnified because of its GDP problems. Taxable income provides a strong revenue stream for a country, but when  people cheat the system that does not help. Corruption will only get worse as the tax rates rise.

The only real military threat Greece has faced was back in 1967 when George Papadopoulos took control. Even then the government has sorted itself out to be ruled in a democracy. Religion and intolerance has not played a major role (Maybe in ancient times) today, which is a common pattern in Eurozone countries, which all seem to be pretty stable when it comes to military, religion, and government separation in today’s times. The democracy, even though working against its best interest, was definitely a big factor in July 2015. A referendum was held in a public voted as suggested by PM Tsipras. The vote was whether or not to accept the terms of a Germany lead Greek Bailout. The vote was to be held all day with the results posted in the nighttime. The people were swayed by a voicturous Tsipras the day before the vote pleading his case to the Greek people on TV by saying they cannot accept the terms and they must stand united. When it was announced the Greek people voted no on a bailout, that really showed how much support Tsipras had of his people that they thought they would get a better deal from holding out. The people also hold parliamentary elections, so the outcomes are determined by the people as to who rules the country.

The growth of Greece has been slow. In 2014 Greece GDP in $USD was $237.59 billion. Its GDP growth rate was -.90 % as of its last quarter. Greece’s debt is so bad compared to its GDP, they had to increase its debt maturity rate from 20 years to 40 year maturity. At one point the Debt to GDP was at 177%. If terms are not strong and held on to in agreement with Greece the bailouts could happen until a reported 2020.

Financially the Greeks total debt currently is $426 billion $USD. Which explains the 177% debt to GDP, because their GDP is only $237.59 billion $USD. They cannot afford to pay off their debts, and have had to make many cuts to programs, retirement ages, tax hikes. It is unbelievably lucky how Greece is in the Eurozone and thus has the Euro as a currency. The current exchange rate of the USD to the Euro is EUR$1.00 to $1.10. Greece is lucky it did not leave the Eurozone and the currency would probably have been worth nothing if they did so. Greece’s average inflation rate is around -1.99%, therefore it is deflation. The balance of trade with the rest of Europe is a discouraging -$2.0 billion EUR.

When Greece defaulted its payment to the IMF on June 30th 2015, that $1.7 billion payment would cause havoc in the country, Eurozone, and the rest of the world’s markets. Greece is back to the bottom of the barrel in the Eurozone and will have to basically completely reset their financial future in order to even have a hope. They need to give up so many luxuries they have enjoyed over the years. It realistically could be another 10 years before Greece is back to being some sort of economic power. Though some numbers may suggest sooner, based on the history of the way the country is run, it seems the people will vote in a likely candidate that will get things straightened out. Greece has some of the richest history in the world and was a valuable part of Europe, especially when voted into the Euro in 2002. The Greeks, known historically for producing some of the best shipping companies and lanes in the world to olive oil will have to reinvent itself. Greece should be able to get out of this situation and have an impact in producing results for the Euro. The leadership of Greece is playing to its people as of right now. It remains to be seen if the current government can sustain and uphold the regulations and compliance they have to go by. The resiliency of the Greek people will be its biggest benefactor and biggest downfall. It has taken Germany to head a committee to get Greece back on track. In the end a country’s situation is up to its people. When your way of life is threatened you should do something about it. The Greeks may want to open a history textbook and get back to the basics, especially when it comes to getting a country of 10+ million back on right financial terms, and that might take a leader who will not tell you what you want to hear, but what you need to hear.

 

Works Cited

 

Cambanis, Thanassis. “Why Can’t Greece Shake Its Corruption Problem? – The Boston Globe.” BostonGlobe.com. N.p., 22 Aug. 2014. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

Ferreira, Joana. “Greece Unemployment Rate | 1998-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast.” Greece Unemployment Rate | 1998-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast. N.p., 10 Dec. 2015. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

“France – At Least Two Paris Attackers ‘travelled through Greece’.” France 24. N.p., 21 Nov. 2015. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

“Greece Election: Alexis Tsipras Hails ‘victory of the People’ – BBC News.” BBC News. N.p., 21 Sept. 2015. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

“Greece Profile – Timeline – BBC News.” BBC News. N.p., 11 Aug. 2015. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

Kottasova, Ivana. “Greek Debt Crisis: Who Has Most to Lose?” CNNMoney. Cable News Network, 2 Feb. 2015. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

Maltezou, Renee. “Tsipras Resigns, Paving Way for Snap Greek Election.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 21 Aug. 2015. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

Team, Data. “Continental Drift.” The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 28 July 2015. Web. 06 Jan. 2016.

Toth, Istvan. “Market Snapshot.” The Journal of Private Equity Private Equity 18.1 (2014): 102-03. Cushmanwakefield.com. 2015. Web. 13 Dec. 2015.

Amazon’s New Fire Tablet

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Business/Lifestyle:

The new Kindle Fire coming out at $49.99 will probably be the highest selling product of the Christmas season. We are now coming to the point of technology where not only does it continue to get smaller with each device, but also costs are coming down. We are starting to see different ways to build tablets and smartphones to get them out to the market quick and cheap compared to competitors. Apple doesn’t often counter products. They will most likely not come out with a $49.99 tablet because that is not what they do.

Reacting to how competitors make moves is not what a company like Apple does. They have a plan and stick to it, which has worked for them so far. That means a lot when it comes to believing in your customer base and in yourself with your products and services that you don’t have to try and one-up someone else doing the same thing you are doing.

This was an unpaid post.

Image courtesy of Amazon Press

How Rewards Programs Are Good For Business

lifestyle/business:


If you haven’t already noticed many businesses are popping up with rewards programs and incentives to not only get new customers but to really keep existing customers from going anywhere else.

As an example you could say Cumberland Farms has the best gas rewards program in the country. I am a “Smart Pay” member and I have to say nothing else compares. I can count on one hand how many times I have gotten gas at a gas station other than Cumberland Farms in the last 2.5 years.

The way their program works: Either download their app or go into a store and grab a physical card. Then you go online and set up an account by adding your personal checking account to it. After that you are able to use the rewards card/app at any Cumberland station and automatically receive 10 cents off every gallon you purchase. On top of that you get in-store free rewards for no reason at all and also depending on how often you get gas (it keeps track). By giving incentives to customers to keep them coming back many companies are joining the trend of offering a rewards program.

They are a great example because they kept up with the curve of consumer trends. Now you see big companies have rewards cards and offer incentives to customers to keep them coming back and not go anywhere else. Subway, Dunkin Donuts, are among some that offer a rewards program. Businesses are now fighting to keep customers because if it means something to you they want that to carry over to what they offer. Giving you a reason to stick with their products or services is seen as a way to create a long term customer, even when a program ends.

This was an unpaid post

Investing in Land

Investing/business:
  
Investing in land should be more common today than it is. As the housing market slowly starts rebuilding itself up to where it once was almost 10 years ago, it would make sense for the price of land to go up as well. Land has always been a valuable asset (At least for some more than others), which is why it should be invested in more often as housing starts to peak higher and higher. 

The downside to investing in land would be the almost defunct prices. Rarely do parcels of land just increase in price if not for a good reason. There is still nothing wrong with investing and holding out on the future. As world population increase it would make sense to buy up land now because space will be getting a little tighter in the years to come. 

Whether you would build something on it or just hold it for future considerations, investing in land now would make sense, if you think about it.

Water Is the New Gold

Investing/Lifestyle:
Water has become a more valuable commodity by the day. It hits home when you hear about how California’s water table is drying up and the state was in a terrible drought back earlier this summer. We continue to hear in the news about how different countries are experiencing water shortages, and the stories from behind the scenes have been very ugly to say the least. 

The U.N. had come out with a prediction in 2013 about how the world population is expected to reach 9.6 billion in 2050. And Aljazeera reported in 2015 that by 2030 we could start to see extreme shortages. 

Water could be the new gold. The basic necessity not many things on Earth can survive without to live is water. And there’s no sign of any other alternatives other than conservation, protection, and find ways to distribute water in the future. Economically unstable countries see poor water distribution, lack of resourcing, and contamination or polluting as a continuing force preventing them from reaching equilibrium in finding a solution to their problem.

For thousands of years gold has been seen as valuable because its scarcity in comparison to other metals. Could water eventually be seen in the same way gold is and was? It is very possible because even today scarcity of water is a threat in many countries, and as global populations increase the water supply will have to as well in order to sustain human life.  

 

Photo courtesy of: http://growingblue.com/water-in-2050/

Aljazeera: http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/3/20/un-world-faces-40-percent-water-shortfall-by-2030.html

United Nations: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/un-report-world-population-projected-to-reach-9-6-billion-by-2050.html
This was an unpaid post.